Research Facts & Figures > Economic Forecasts & Updates > February 2007 Monthly Analysis

East Bay Economic Development Agency Quarterly Forcast
Serving the East Bay, The Bright Side of the San Francisco Bay
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SNAPSHOT

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GDP_&_CORPORATE_PROFITS

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COST OF LIVING

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BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

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EAST BAY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

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HOUSING

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CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

 

HOTEL OCCUPANCY

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Contact Information

This forecast was prepared by:


Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
Stephanie@eastbayeda.org

East Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612

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EAST BAY FEBRUARY 2007 MONTHLY ANALYSIS

 

The East Bay Monthly Analysis augments the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  A free subscription and downloads of both monthly and quarterly reports are available at economic_forecasts_updates.htm.  East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and suggestions.  Send your comments, questions or suggestions to stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call us at (510) 272-6843.

For a more printable (PDF) version of this newsletter, click here.

 

SNAPSHOT: THE EAST BAY IN JANUARY 2007

 

  • The East Bay’s unemployment rate was 4.6% in January, up from 3.9 percent in December 2006.
  • The East Bay’s manufacturing sector gained 1,600 payroll jobs when compared with January 2006.
  • The East Bay’s median home sale price was up slightly compared to January 2007, while the number of homes sold decreased in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.
  • East Bay multi-family permits increased in a year-over-year comparison, while single family permits decreased.
  • East Bay residential permit values decreased in a year-over-year comparison, while commercial permit values increased.
  • East Bay hotels enjoyed increases in daily room rates.

 

GDP & CORPORATE PROFITS

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

 

(Click here for more on GDP and Corporate Profits).

COST OF LIVING

In January, shelter costs in the Bay Area were up less than 2.0 percent, an increase slightly higher than the US Cities average, which was up 1.4 percent.  The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.  The January level of 202.4 (1982-84=100) was 2.1 percent higher than in January 2006.

 

(Click here for more on CPI).

 

 
 

BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT, WORKFORCE & EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

NOTE:  Labor Force and Industry data contained in this release differ from previous information due to the U.S. Department of Labor’s annual revision process. For more information on these changes visit: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/article.asp?PAGEID=&SUBID=&ARTICLEID=637&SEGMENTID
 

The unemployment rate in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward MD was 4.6 percent in January 2007, up from 3.9 percent in December 2006, and the same as the year-ago figure of 4.6 percent.  This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.3 percent for California and 5.0 percent for the nation during the same period.  

 


Within the East Bay, Alameda County’s unemployment rate was 4.6 percent in January 2007 and Contra Costa County’s rate was 4.5 percent.


The unemployment rate in the San Francisco MD was 4.0 percent in January, up from 3.4 percent in December 2006, but lower than the January 2006 figure of 4.3 percent.  Similarly, in the San Jose MSA, the unemployment rate was 4.7 in January 2007, up from 4.1 percent in December 2006, but lower than the figure of 5.0 percent in January 2006.


After increases leading up to December 2006, both the East Bay and San Francisco saw losses in labor force in January 2007 workers, losing 1,800 workers and 4,000 workers, respectively.  San Jose gained 2,500 workers in January 2007, following a gain of 2,700 in December 2006.  In a year-over-year comparison with January 2006, the East Bay had 23,600 more workers, San Francisco, 22,600 more and in San Francisco there were 30,300 more workers than in January 2006.

 


(Click here for more on Bay Area Workforce, Employed Residents & Payroll).

 

EAST BAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

In a year-over-year comparison with January 2006, the East Bay was up 20,200 jobs, San Francisco gained 23,200 jobs and San Jose gained 25,400 jobs.
In the East Bay between January 2006 and January 2007:

  • Professional and business services led the year over job gains by 6,300 jobs. Professional, scientific and technical services (up 3,700 jobs) added close to half of that gain.
  • Educational and health services increased by 4,200 jobs, mainly in health care and social assistance (up 3,200 jobs).
  • Leisure and hospitality added 2,800 jobs, predominantly in accommodation and food services (up 2,400 jobs).
  • On the down side, information lost a total of 900 jobs, which includes a 500 job loss in telecommunications.

(Click here for more on East Bay Payroll Employment by Sector).

 

HOUSING

All Homes by County

Number Sold
January 2007

Annual Pct.
Chg

Median
January 2007

Median Annual

Pct.
Chg

Alameda

1,316

-2.80%

$565,000

0.90%

Contra Costa

1,298

-10.80%

$575,000

-4.30%

Marin

224

-12.90%

$754,500

10.00%

Napa

111

-11.70%

$580,000

-6.50%

San Francisco

1,618

-0.70%

$650,000

1.50%

San Mateo

369

8.90%

$745,000

0.70%

Santa Clara

482

3.50%

$725,000

1.40%

Solano

544

-14.00%

$470,500

-8.60%

Sonoma

472

-1.90%

$569,000

-10.40%

Bay Area

6,434

-4.10%

$610,000

-1.50%

Source: Data Quick Information Systems


Home sales in the Bay Area fell for the 24th month in a row in January as prices slipped to their lowest level in a year and a half, according to Data Quick Information Systems.

A total of 6,168 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area last month. That was down 26.3 percent from a revised 8,372 in December, and down 4.1 percent from a revised 6,434 for January 2006.  A decline from December to January is normal for the season. However, sales last month were the lowest for any January since 1996 when 5,504 homes were sold. The average January since 1988 has had 6,455 sales. Last month's year-over-year decline was the most moderate since March 2005 when sales fell 2.7 percent. Year-over-year sales declines peaked last July at 32.4 percent.

(Click here for more on Housing).

 

CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

 

 

In January 2007 over $175 million in residential permits were issued in the East Bay, down from $212 million in December.  The slowdown in permit issuance can be attributed to seasonal factors, as well as the fact that fewer residential developments are being planned and built as homes continue to sit longer on the market.  Non-residential permit values were up slightly in the East Bay, where $71 million in permits were issued.  In the San Jose and Napa MSAs, non-residential permit values were up, with San Jose issuing over $162 million in permits.  The San Francisco and Vallejo-Fairfield MSAs both saw significant decreases in non-residential permits.

 

(Click here for more on Construction Permits).

 

HOTEL OCCUPANCY

 

The PKF Consulting report on hotel trends for December 2006 shows a 5.9 percent increase in room rates throughout Northern California.  The East Bay’s average daily room rate of $103.11 in December was 1.9 percent higher than in December 2005.  Hotels throughout Northern California saw year-over-year increases in room rates in December 2006, with hotels in Napa seeing a 19.9 percent increase in room rates over December 2005.

 

(Click here for more on Hotel Occupancy).

 

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