Research Facts & Figures > Economic Forecasts & Updates > March 2007 Monthly Analysis

East Bay Economic Development Agency Quarterly Forcast
Serving the East Bay, The Bright Side of the San Francisco Bay
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SNAPSHOT

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COST OF LIVING

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GDP SUMMARY

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BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

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EAST BAY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

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HOUSING

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CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

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HOTEL OCCUPANCY

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Contact Information

This forecast was prepared by:


Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
Stephanie@eastbayeda.org

East Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612

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EAST BAY MARCH 2007 MONTHLY ANALYSIS

 

The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. 

 

The East Bay EDA encourages you to forward the current report to anyone interested and welcomes your comments and suggestions.

 

For a more printable version of this newsletter, click here.

 


 

SNAPSHOT

 

THE EAST BAY IN FEBRUARY 2007

  • The East Bay’s unemployment rate was 4.5% in February, down from 4.6 percent in January.
  • The East Bay’s manufacturing sector continued its moderate growth, adding 1,400 payroll jobs when compared with February 2006.
  • When compared with February 2006, the number of homes sold continued to decrease in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, and the median home sale value was virtually unchanged in Alameda County and fell slightly in Contra Costa County.
  • East Bay multi-family permits increased in a year-over-year comparison, while single family permits decreased.
  • East Bay residential permit values decreased in a year-over-year comparison, while commercial and industrial permit values increased.

COST OF LIVING

In February 2007, shelter costs in the Bay Area were up 2.8 percent from February 2006, compared with a 1.8 percent annual increase in February 2006.

 

Click here for more on CPI

 

GDP SUMMARY

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

 

 

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BAY AREA WORKFORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

In February 2007, shelter costs in the Bay Area were up 2.8 percent from February 2006, compared with a 1.8 percent annual increase in February 2006.

 

 

The unemployment rate in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan District (MD) was 4.5 percent in February 2007, down from 4.6 percent in January 2007, and below the year-ago estimate of 4.7 percent.  This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.2 percent for California and 4.9 percent for the nation during the same period. 

Within the East Bay, the unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties in February 2007.

The unemployment rate in the San Francisco MD was 3.9 percent in February, down from 4.0 percent in January 2007.  In the San Jose Metropolitan Statistical Area, the unemployment rate was 4.6 percent in February 2007, down from 4.7 percent in January.

Click here for more on Bay Area Workforce

 

EAST BAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

Between February 2006 and February 2007 in the East Bay, payroll employment grew by 15,300 jobs or 1.5 percent.

·        Professional and business services led the year-over gains by adding 5,300 jobs.  Professional, scientific and technical services (up 3,500 jobs) accounted for the bulk of the gain.

·        Educational and health services gained 3,800 jobs, mostly in health care (up 2,800 jobs).

·        Government posted a net increase of 3,300 jobs, largely in local public schools (up 3,100 jobs)

·        Leisure and hospitality increased payrolls by 1,900 jobs; accommodation and food services accounted for all the gains.

·        Information lost 1,500 jobs, mostly in telecommunications (down 900 jobs).

There was little activity in the East Bay’s Manufacturing sector between January and February 2007, with a small gain of 100 jobs in Residual-Food manufacturing being offset by a loss of 100 in the Residual-Miscellaneous sub-sector.

 

Click here for more on East Bay Payroll Employment

 

HOUSING

 

All Homes by County

Number Sold
February 2007

Annual Pct.
Chg

Median
January 2007

Median Annual

Pct.
Chg

Alameda

1,356

3.7%

$585,000

0.9%

Contra Costa

1,160

-18.7%

$537,000

-5.5%

Marin

228

4.1%

$829,000

3.8%

Napa

93

-6.1%

$612,500

-1.2%

San Francisco

1,654

-6.9%

$677,000

1.5%

San Mateo

375

-12.6%

$757,500

2.4%

Santa Clara

528

-7.0%

$720,000

-2.0%

Solano

458

-13.3%

$445,000

-2.2%

Sonoma

453

-7.9%

$515,000

-2.7%

Bay Area

6,305

-7.9%

$620,000

0.3%

Source: Data Quick Information Systems

 

Bay Area homes continued selling at an 11-year low in February as the region logged its seventh month without significant price appreciation, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

A total of 6,305 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 2.2 percent from 6,168 in January, and down 7.9 percent from 6,844 in February last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

On a year-over-year basis, Bay Area sales have fallen for 25 consecutive months. The declines have generally eased each month since sales fell 32.4 percent last July.  In the East Bay, Alameda County saw a 3.7 percent year-over-year increase in the number of homes sold, while the number of homes sold decreased 18.7 percent in Contra Costa County – the largest decrease in the Bay Area region in February.

 

Click here for more on Housing

 

CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

 

 

 

The following two charts of residential and non-residential permit values issued in each of the Bay Area’s regions since February 2004 provide a quick comparative view of activity.  Data follows in subsequent tables.

In February 2007 the East Bay, Napa and San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) experienced moderate increases in the value of residential construction permits issued.  The East Bay saw a 49 million dollar increase over January 2007, the largest month-over-month increase throughout the five MSAs. 

 

Click here for more on Construction Permits

 

HOTEL OCCUPANCY

 

 

The PKF Consulting report on hotel trends for January 2007 showed an 8.7 percent increase in room rates throughout Northern California compared with January 2006.  Mild weather during the month helped The East Bay’s average daily room to climb to $113.27 in January 2007 - a 7.6 percent increase over January 2006.  Hotels throughout northern California saw year-over-year increases in room rates in January 2007, with hotels in Napa seeing a 21.8 percent increase in room rates over January 2006.

 

 Click here for more on Hotel Occupancy


 

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