November 2007 Monthly Analysis
> Housing
BAY AREA HOUSING
According to DataQuick Information Systems, Bay Area home sales remained at their lowest level in decades last month, the result of mortgage market turbulence and hesitant buyers.
Prices continued to hold up best in core markets, while declines steepened in some inland areas.
A total of 5,486 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in October. That was up 9.4 percent from 5,014 in September, and down 35.7 percent from 8,532 for October 2006.
|
All Homes by County
|
Number Sold
October 2007
|
Sales Annual Pct.
Chg
|
Median
October 2007
|
Median Annual
Pct.
Chg
|
|
Alameda
|
1,098
|
-33.70%
|
$570,000
|
-3.00%
|
Contra Costa
|
1,011
|
-42.40%
|
$530,500
|
-1.80%
|
|
Marin
|
216
|
-28.70%
|
$875,000
|
5.50%
|
|
Napa
|
71
|
-53.90%
|
$548,750
|
0.20%
|
|
San Francisco
|
1,381
|
-35.00%
|
$683,750
|
1.50%
|
|
San Mateo
|
526
|
-8.20%
|
$795,000
|
3.90%
|
|
Santa Clara
|
512
|
-28.80%
|
$775,000
|
2.60%
|
|
Solano
|
309
|
-51.40%
|
$391,750
|
-15.60%
|
|
Sonoma
|
362
|
-40.90%
|
$473,000
|
-9.00%
|
|
Bay Area
|
5,486
|
-35.70%
|
$631,000
|
2.40%
|
|
Source: Data Quick Information Systems
|
In the East Bay the number of homes sold showed an annual percent decrease of 33.70 percent in Alameda County and a decrease of 42.40 percent in Contra Costa County.
Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 33 months. According to k records, until last month, the slowest October was in 1990 when 6,443 homes were sold.
The strongest October was in 2003 when sales
totaled 13,392. The average for the month of
October is 8,930.
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $631,000 last month, up 1.0 percent from $625,000 in September, and up 2.4 percent from $616,000 for October last year. The median peaked at $665,000 last June and July.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $3,000 last month, up from $2,974 the previous month, and up from $2,911 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 15.4 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 9.1 percent below the current cycle's peak in June last year.
BAY AREA NOTICES OF DEFAULT, FORECLOSURES & AFFORDABILITY
NOTICES OF DEFAULT
According to DataQuick, most of the loans that went into default last quarter originated between July 2005 and September 2006. On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Merced, San Joaquin and Riverside counties.
In the Bay Area, largest percentage increase in Notices of Default was in Napa County, where 279 percent more notices were filed in the third quarter of 2007 than in the third quarter of 2006. San Francisco County saw a decrease in the number of notices filed during this period. In the East Bay, Contra Costa County was the hardest hit, with a 218 percent jump since the third quarter of 2006. Notices of default were up 165 percent over the third quarter of 2006 in Alameda County. le="font-family: arial;line-height:1.25em; margin:2px 60px 15px 20px;">
AFFORDABILITY
According to numbers released by the California Association of Realty, the number of residents able to afford a median-priced home throughout most of the Bay Area continued to remain below 25 percent. In Alameda County, 23 percent of residents were able to afford a median-priced home, unchanged from the third quarter of 2006. In Contra Costa County, only 16 percent of residents were able to afford a median-priced home, down one percentage point when compared with the third quarter of 2006.
EAST BAY HOME SALES
In October 2007 the median home sale price
in Alameda County was $580,000 – a 1.69
percent, or $10,000, decrease compared with
October 2006. In Contra Costa County the
median home sale price was $531,500 in
October 2007 - a 3.36 percent, or $18,500,
decrease compared to October 2006.
|
County/City/Area
|
# Sold
|
October
2007
|
October
2006
|
% Change
Yr-To-Yr
|
|
Alameda County
|
741
|
$580,000
|
$590,000
|
-1.69%
|
|
Alameda
|
43
|
$715,000
|
$682,000
|
4.84%
|
|
Albany
|
8
|
$522,500
|
$580,000
|
-9.91%
|
|
Berkeley
|
51
|
$628,000
|
$646,000
|
-2.79%
|
|
Castro Valley
|
27
|
$600,000
|
$607,500
|
-1.23%
|
|
Dublin
|
33
|
$585,000
|
$675,000
|
-13.33%
|
|
Emeryville
|
26
|
$409,000
|
$422,500
|
-3.20%
|
|
Fremont
|
113
|
$640,000
|
$632,000
|
1.27%
|
|
Hayward
|
56
|
$420,500
|
$550,000
|
-23.55%
|
|
Livermore
|
57
|
$604,500
|
$600,000
|
0.75%
|
|
Newark
|
19
|
$635,000
|
$615,000
|
3.25%
|
|
Oakland
|
177
|
$534,500
|
$530,000
|
0.85%
|
|
Pleasanton
|
45
|
$800,000
|
$775,000
|
3.23%
|
|
San Leandro
|
45
|
$430,000
|
$560,500
|
-23.28%
|
|
San Lorenzo
|
12
|
$444,000
|
$544,000
|
-18.38%
|
|
Union City
|
29
|
$639,500
|
$658,000
|
-2.81%
|
|
Contra Costa County
|
816
|
$531,500
|
$550,000
|
-3.36%
|
|
Alamo
|
9
|
$1,260,000
|
$1,425,000
|
-11.58%
|
|
Antioch
|
63
|
$382,000
|
$511,250
|
-25.28%
|
|
Brentwood
|
72
|
$540,000
|
$650,750
|
-17.02%
|
|
Byron
|
7
|
$508,500
|
$570,000
|
-10.79%
|
|
Clayton
|
10
|
$606,500
|
$675,000
|
-10.15%
|
|
Concord
|
62
|
$431,000
|
$499,000
|
-13.63%
|
|
Crocket
|
4
|
$315,000
|
$370,000
|
-14.86%
|
|
Danville
|
64
|
$1,017,500
|
$970,000
|
4.90%
|
|
El Cerrito
|
17
|
$635,000
|
$616,500
|
3.00%
|
|
El Sobrante
|
14
|
$400,000
|
$530,000
|
-24.53%
|
|
Hercules
|
26
|
$413,500
|
$633,750
|
-34.75%
|
|
Lafayette
|
19
|
$1,000,000
|
$940,000
|
6.38%
|
|
Martinez
|
24
|
$443,750
|
$565,000
|
-21.46%
|
|
Moraga
|
24
|
$880,000
|
$970,000
|
-9.28%
|
|
Oakley
|
38
|
$410,000
|
$506,750
|
-19.09%
|
|
Orinda
|
18
|
$1,300,000
|
$1,019,000
|
27.58%
|
|
Pinole
|
8
|
$435,500
|
$554,500
|
-21.46%
|
|
Pittsburg
|
41
|
$350,000
|
$460,000
|
-23.91%
|
|
Pleasant Hill
|
20
|
$588,500
|
$622,000
|
-5.39%
|
|
Richmond
|
65
|
$390,000
|
$445,000
|
-12.36%
|
|
Rodeo
|
6
|
$415,000
|
$510,000
|
-18.63%
|
|
San Pablo
|
27
|
$415,000
|
$502,000
|
-17.33%
|
|
San Ramon
|
110
|
$835,000
|
$730,000
|
14.38%
|
|
Walnut Creek
|
62
|
$535,000
|
$712,000
|
-24.86%
|
|
|
|
|
Source: DataQuick
|
|
