The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by EDAB staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
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Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2005, real GDP increased 1.7%.
The acceleration in first-quarter GDP growth primarily reflected an upturn in consumer spending, an acceleration in exports, an increase in federal government spending, and accelerations in both equipment-and-software and residential investment. In contrast, inventory investment and disposable personal income experienced decelerations.
Corporate Profits
While not increasing at the rate of 14.4%, as seen in the fourth quarter of 2005, profits continued to show positive growth during the first quarter of 2006, rising 7.9%. Profits After Tax increased 8.8%, compared to 13.8% in the 4th quarter.
(Click here for more on GDP and Corporate Profits).
COST OF LIVING
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9% in April, before seasonal adjustment. The US City April level of 201.5 (1982-84=100) was 3.5% higher than in April 2005. The Bay Area’s increase was 3.2%.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.6% in April, following a 0.4% rise in March. Energy costs increased 1.3% in March and 3.9% in April. The food index, which rose 0.1% in March, saw no change in April.
The US Cities Shelter costs rose 0.3% in April, following increases of 0.4% in both February and March. Bay Area Shelter costs increased 2.4% in April, reflecting continued growth in the period beginning September 2005. An increase in the neighborhood of 2.4% has not been seen since February of 2003 when shelter costs rose 2.4%.
(Click here for more on CPI).
The unemployment rate in the East Bay (Alameda and Contra Costa Counties) dipped to 4.3% in April 2006, below the year-ago figure of 4.8%. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 4.8% for California and 4.5% for the nation during the same period.
Within the East Bay, the unemployment rate was 4.4% in Alameda County and 4.1% in Contra Costa County.
However, part of the reason for these declining Bay Area region’s unemployment rates over the last six months (October 2005 to April 2006) was been a decrease in their labor force (-80,900) while total job numbers have slightly increased (4,300).
What is different is that the greatest decline occurred in the East Bay, which lost 42,300 since October 2005, -3.3% of its labor force, followed by San Jose, down 21,800 (-2.6%) and San Francisco, 6,800 less (-1.8%).
(Click here for more on Workforce, Employed Residents & Payroll).
Between April 2005 and April 2006, the number of East Bay jobs grew by 24,400 (2.4%).
· The construction boom continued to bolster payrolls, up 7,400 jobs, predominantly in specialty trade contractors, up 4,000 jobs.
· Educational and Health services added 5,300 jobs, mainly in healthcare and social assistance, up 4,700 jobs.
· Financial Activities increased payrolls by 3,600 jobs, mostly in finance and insurance, up 2,300 jobs.
· Manufacturing, Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities saw no change between April 2005 and April 2006.
· Other Services and Information both incurred losses of 300 and 800, respectively.
(Click here for more on East Bay Payroll Employment by Sector).
Bay Area home sales in April dropped to their lowest level in five years as prices slowly reached a new peak, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
A total of 8,358 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was down 14.2% from 9,745 for March, and down 25.1% from 11,158 for April last year.
| All Homes | Number Sold
Apr 06 | Annual Pct.
Chg | Median
Apr - 06 | Annual Pct.
Chg |
| Alameda | 1,694 | -24.50% | $589,000 | 6.70% |
| Contra Costa | 1,588 | -25.10% | $570,000 | 7.50% |
| Marin | 321 | -33.30% | $844,000 | 8.30% |
| Napa | 125 | -39.00% | $609,000 | 6.10% |
| San Francisco | 497 | -27.00% | $778,000 | 3.60% |
| San Mateo | 631 | -25.80% | $750,000 | 2.60% |
| Santa Clara | 2,255 | -20.30% | $661,000 | 6.80% |
| Solano | 667 | -35.70% | $477,000 | 16.60% |
| Sonoma | 580 | -18.40% | $566,000 | 6.00% |
| Bay Area | 8,358 | -25.10% | $628,000 | 7.20% |
| Source: DataQuick Information Systems |
(Click here for more on Housing).
The following two charts of residential and non-residential permit values issued in each of the Bay Area’s ‘metro areas’ since April 2001 provide a quick comparative view of activity. Data follow in subsequent tables.
(Click here for more on Construction Permits).
The PKF Consulting report on hotel trends for March 2006 shows an increase in room rates throughout Northern California of 11.1%. The East Bay’s Average Daily Room Rate increased by 2.8% to $102.57 but moved down to 9th on the list. East Bay hotels experienced the lowest percentage increase in room rates from March 2005 to March 2006.
Occupancy rates increased throughout Northern California, with the San Jose/Peninsula region seeing a 22.3% increase. The East Bay experienced the 5th highest percentage increase in occupancy with an improvement of 6.2% during March, raising the East Bay occupancy rate to 64.9%, however it remains in the 9th position in 2006, the same position it had in March 2005.
(Click here for more on Hotel Occupancy).
