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This forecast was prepared by:
Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
East
Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612
Serving the East Bay
- the Bright Side of the
San Francisco Bay
For more information on
the East Bay, click on www.eastbayeda.org
For archived newsletters
and forecasts click here
For more reports and studies on the East Bay, click
here
 |
MAY 2008 EDITION
The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay
Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast
authored by economists at the UCLA
Anderson Forecast.
East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and
suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown,
stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call
(510) 272-6843.
For a more printable version of this newsletter,
click
here
THE EAST BAY IN APRIL 2008
* East Bay unemployment declined, falling to 5.2 percent from 5.5 percent in March
*
Construction, finance and manufacturing payrolls continued to post larger-than-average monthly and yearly decreases
* Median home sale values decreased 19 percent in Alameda County and 32 percent in Contra Costa County on an annual
basis
* Non-residential construction permit values increased slightly, with much of the activity taking place in the
industrial sector
* Both single and multi-family residential construction permits continued to post annual decreases
BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT According to the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in the East Bay was 5.3 percent in
April 2008, down from a revised 5.5 percent in March 2008, but above the year-ago estimate of 4.4 percent. This
compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 6.1 percent for California and 4.8 percent for the nation during the
same period. The unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in Alameda County and 5.3 percent in Contra Costa County.
Unemployment rates in the Bay Area’s other metro areas also decreased between March and April. San Francisco’s
unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent, from 4.4 percent in March, while unemployment in San Jose fell from 5.2
percent in March to 4.2 percent in April. Though unemployment fell between March and April, in a year-over-year
comparison with April 2007, rates are up in all three Bay Area metro areas.
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department’s monthly release, Between March
2008 and April 2008, the total number of jobs in the East Bay decreased by 1,500 to reach 1,038,000.
-
The major industry with the largest deviation from its usual seasonal pattern was construction; its jobs held stable, although far below its average 800-job increase from
March to April over the prior 18 years.
-
Manufacturing decreased by 700 jobs, a larger-than-average seasonal decrease,
with durable goods (down 500 jobs) accounting for the bulk of the loss.
-
Trade, transportation, and utilities netted a decline of 700 jobs, a typical decrease from March to April, with department and other retail stores reducing payrolls by 900 jobs.
-
Financial activities lost 600 jobs, a larger-than-average seasonal decrease.
-
On the upside, professional and business services gained 600 jobs, a larger-than average seasonal increase. Employment services (up 500 jobs) accounted for most of the gain.
According to DataQuick Information Systems, Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of bargain hunters and other buyers have come out of the woodwork as a result of today's lower prices.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
In terms of median values, all Bay Area counties continue to see year-over-year decreases. The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $518,000 last month, down 3.4 percent from $536,000 in March, and down 21.4 percent from $659,000 in April last year. Last month's median was 22.1 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached in June and July last year.
|
All Homes by County
|
Number Sold
April 2008
|
Sales Annual Pct.
Chg
|
Median
April
2008
|
Median Annual
Pct.
Chg
|
|
Alameda
|
1,240
|
-20.30%
|
$473,750
|
-19.20%
|
|
Contra Costa
|
1,265
|
1.50%
|
$395,000
|
-34.20%
|
|
Marin
|
216
|
-31.00%
|
$800,000
|
-13.50%
|
|
Napa
|
100
|
-8.30%
|
$499,000
|
-11.40%
|
|
Santa
Clara
|
1,440
|
-28.30%
|
$615,000
|
-13.30%
|
|
San Francisco
|
605
|
6.50%
|
$750,000
|
-5.10%
|
|
San Mateo
|
573
|
-15.90%
|
$672,500
|
-17.00%
|
|
Solano
|
429
|
-2.50%
|
$319,500
|
-25.40%
|
|
Sonoma
|
442
|
-16.00%
|
$414,250
|
-20.20%
|
|
Bay Area
|
6,310
|
-15.30%
|
$518,000
|
-21.40%
|
|
Source: Data Quick Information Systems
|
|
Region
|
Total Value of Construction Permits
5/07 – 4/08
|
Annual Change in Total Value of
Construction Permits
5/06-4/07 vs. 5/07-4/08
|
Percent Change
|
|
East Bay
|
$3,379,964,970
|
-$757,300,222
|
-18.3%
|
|
Napa
|
$402,381,196
|
$97,957,923
|
32.2%
|
|
San Francisco
|
$4,499,920,494
|
$856,647,241
|
23.5%
|
|
San Jose
|
$3,196,653,911
|
-$130,846,549
|
-3.9%
|
|
Vallejo-Fairfield
|
$968,337,553
|
-$366,349,733
|
-27.4%
|
Between March and April 2008, residential construction permit activity in the Bay Area was varied. The East Bay saw an increase of $15.2 million and San Francisco an increase of over $121.4 million, while other Bay Area regions saw only minor month-over-month changes. Permit values in the Vallejo-Fairfield region increased $2.1 million over March 2008, while the San Jose and Napa areas posted losses of $2.6 and $1.1 million, respectively. In a year-over-year comparison with April 2007, the East Bay declined $35.7 million while the San Francisco area showed a $40.8 million increase. The San Jose region posted a $79 million decline, while the Vallejo-Fairfield and Napa regions declined $23.7 and $7.6 million, respectively.
Between March and April 2008, the East Bay and Napa regions were the only two Bay Area regions to post increases in non-residential permit values. Permit values in the East Bay were $32.7 million higher in April than in March, and in Napa permit values were $1.8 million higher during the same period. During the same period, the San Francisco, San Jose and Vallejo-Fairfield regions saw losses of $3.2 and $86.7 million and $1.4 million, respectively. In a year-over-year comparison with April 2007 the East Bay gained $30.4 million and the Napa region gained $1.8 million, while the San Jose, San Francisco and Vallejo-Fairfield regions decreased by $28.7 million, $20.6 million, and $26.6 million, respectively.
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