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Alameda County
Contra Costa County
This forecast was prepared by:
Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
East
Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612
Serving the East Bay
- the Bright Side of the
San Francisco Bay
For more information on
the East Bay, click on www.eastbayeda.org
For archived newsletters
and forecasts click here
For more reports and studies on the East Bay, click
here
 |
JUNE 2008 EDITION
The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay
Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast
authored by economists at the UCLA
Anderson Forecast.
East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and
suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown,
stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call
(510) 272-6843.
For a more printable version of this newsletter,
click
here
THE EAST BAY IN MAY 2008
* East Bay unemployment increased, rising to 5.7 percent from 5.3 percent in April
*
Construction, finance and retail trade payrolls continued to post larger-than-average monthly and yearly decreases
* Median home sale values decreased 19 percent in Alameda County and 33 percent in Contra Costa County on an annual basis
* Non-residential construction permit values increased in both counties
* Both single and multi-family residential construction permits continued to post annual decreases
BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT According to the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in the East Bay was 5.7 percent in May 2008, up from a revised 5.3 percent in April 2008, and above the year-ago estimate of 4.3 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 6.5 percent for California and 5.2 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in Alameda County and 5.8 percent in Contra Costa County.
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department’s monthly release, between April 2008 and May 2008, the total number of jobs in the East Bay increased by 1,100 to reach 1,040,100.
-
Leisure and hospitality increased by 900 jobs, although below its average 1,400-job increase from April to May over the prior 18 years. Food services and bars (up 500 jobs) accounted for most of the increase.
-
Government gained 800 jobs, a larger-than-average seasonal increase. Local and state public schools (up 600 jobs) accounted for the bulk of the increase.
-
Construction grew by 500 jobs, although below its average 1,100-job increase from April to May over the prior 18 years. Construction of buildings (up 300 jobs) accounted for the majority of the growth.
-
On the downside, professional and business services lost 1,200 jobs, mostly due to a seasonal decrease in the other professional, scientific, and technical services (which includes accounting, tax preparation, and bookkeeping services). Employment services (down 500 jobs) also contributed to the month-over loss.
According to DataQuick
Information Systems, Bay Area home sales
slowed again in May.
A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in May 2008. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.
IIn terms of median values, most Bay Area counties continued to see year-over-year decreases in May. In the East Bay, Alameda County the median value was $475,000 - a 19.2 percent decline over May 2007. The Contra Costa County median home sale value was $390,500 – a 33.8 percent decline over May 2007.
|
All Homes by County
|
Number Sold
April 2008
|
Sales Annual Pct.
Chg
|
Median
April
2008
|
Median Annual
Pct.
Chg
|
|
Alameda
|
1,186
|
-27.30%
|
$475,750
|
-19.20%
|
|
Contra Costa
|
1,206
|
-11.70%
|
$390,500
|
-33.80%
|
|
Marin
|
226
|
-37.00%
|
$899,000
|
5.80%
|
|
Napa
|
105
|
-6.30%
|
$475,000
|
-24.30%
|
|
San
Francisco
|
593
|
-3.70%
|
$790,000
|
5.40%
|
|
San Mateo
|
511
|
-33.00%
|
$708,000
|
-12.30%
|
|
Santa Clara
|
1,467
|
-32.70%
|
$620,500
|
-13.00%
|
|
Solano
|
465
|
-2.30%
|
$300,500
|
-31.00%
|
|
Sonoma
|
457
|
-20.90%
|
$415,000
|
-20.10%
|
|
Bay Area
|
6,216
|
-23.10%
|
$517,000
|
-21.70%
|
|
Source: Data Quick Information Systems
|
|
Region
|
Total
Value of Construction Permits
6/07
– 5/08
|
Annual
Change in Total Value of Construction Permits
6/06-5/07 vs. 6/07-5/08
|
Percent Change
|
|
East Bay
|
$3,255,472,141
|
-$799,309,815
|
-19.7%
|
|
Napa
|
$396,947,599
|
$76,376,742
|
23.8%
|
|
San Francisco
|
$4,405,176,647
|
$744,344,095
|
20.3%
|
|
San Jose
|
$3,191,293,836
|
-$54,952,485
|
-1.7%
|
|
Vallejo-Fairfield
|
$915,505,523
|
-$375,932,278
|
-29.1%
|
Between April and May 2008, residential construction permit activity in most Bay Area regions continued to decrease. Compared to April, the East Bay saw a decrease of $44.9 million and San Francisco a decrease of $211.4 million, while permit values in San Jose were up $51.9 million during the same period. In a year-over-year comparison with May 2007, the East Bay declined $122.9 million, San Francisco permits were $86.2 million lower, and the Vallejo-Fairfield area posted a decline of $36.8 million. The San Jose region showed a $25.6 million dollar increase, and the Napa region posted a $5.6 million increase during the same period.
Traffic of imports transported in Twenty-foot equivalent (TEU) containers at the Port of Oakland has posted year-over-year decreases for the last 5 months. Exports have continued to increase, due in part to China’s growing economy and the falling value of the US Dollar.
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