The Cities
& Counties of
Alameda
Antioch
Albany
Berkeley
Brentwood
Concord
Town of Danville
Dublin
Emeryville
El Cerrito
Fremont
Hayward
Livermore
Martinez
Newark
Oakland
Oakley
Piedmont
Pinole
Pittsburg
Pleasant Hill
Pleasanton
Richmond
San Leandro
San Ramon
Alameda County
Contra Costa County
This forecast was prepared by:
Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
East
Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612
Serving the East Bay
- the Bright Side of the
San Francisco Bay
For more information on
the East Bay, click on www.eastbayeda.org
For archived newsletters
and forecasts click here
For more reports and studies on the East Bay, click
here
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JUNE 2009 EDITION
The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay
Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast
authored by economists at the UCLA
Anderson Forecast.
East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and
suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown,
stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call
(510) 272-6843.
To download this report as a PDF
click
here.
THE EAST BAY IN MAY 2009
> Median home values increased over April 2009
>Unemployment rose to 10.4 percent
> Job losses continued to be concentrated in Construction, Professional & Business Services and Retail Trade
>Residential, commercial and industrial construction permit values continued to post declines
The unemployment rate in the East Bay was 10.4 percent in May 2009, up from a revised 10.2 percent in April 2009, and above the year-ago estimate of 5.6 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 11.2 percent for California and 9.1 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 10.7 percent in Alameda County, and 10.0 percent in Contra Costa County.
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department, between April 2009 and May 2009, the total number of jobs located in the East Bay increased by 600 jobs to reach 994,900.
• Leisure and hospitality increased by 1,200 jobs seasonally. Food services and bars (up 700 jobs) accounted for the bulk of the increase.
• Trade, transportation, and utilities netted a gain of 500 jobs. Retail trade (up 500 jobs)
accounted for the majority of the net increase.
• On the downside, construction lost 500 jobs, far below its usual 1,100-job increase from
April-to-May over the prior 19 years. Specialty trade contractors (down 400 jobs) accounted for most of the decrease.
• Manufacturing and professional and business services each lost 200 jobs.
• Government declined by 100 jobs, far below its usual 500-job increase from April-to-May
over the prior 19 years.
According to MDA DataQuick, the median price paid for all new and resale Bay Area houses
and condos combined was $304,000 in April. That was up 4.8 percent from $290,000 in
March but down 41.3 percent from $518,000 a year ago. The median stood 54.3 percent
below the peak median of $665,000 reached in June and July of 2007.
In the East Bay, Alameda County’s median value was $330,000 – up 14.1 percent over April, but down 30.5 percent since May 2008. The Contra Costa County median home sale value in April 2009 was $234,500 – up 4.2percent over April, but down 39.9 since May 2008. Due to foreclosure-related short sales, in May Contra Costa County continued to post both the highest sales volume and the steepest annual decline in median sale prices throughout the Bay Area. Home purchases financed with “jumbo” mortgages (loans over $417k) accounted for 25.5 percent of May sales in Bay Area counties – a high not reached since October 2008. These higher priced homes returning to the market helped the May median value increase in counties throughout the region, including Alameda and Contra Costa.
|
Region
|
Total Value of Construction Permits
6/08 – 5/09
|
Annual Change in Total Value of
Construction Permits
6/07-5/08 vs. 6/08-5/09
|
Annual
Percent Change
|
|
East Bay
|
$2,249,981,861
|
-$1,014,347,847
|
-31.1%
|
|
Napa
|
$322,508,738
|
-$76,898,961
|
-19.3%
|
|
San Francisco
|
$2,596,150,648
|
-$1,805,568,684
|
-41.0%
|
|
San Jose
|
$2,430,871,709
|
-$760,848,225
|
-23.8%
|
|
Vallejo-Fairfield
|
$611,409,552
|
-$312,655,212
|
-33.8%
|
In a comparison of these two twelve-month periods, the East Bay showed a decrease in construction permit values, falling 31.1 percent (over $1 billion) from the previous period. All other Bay Area regions posted losses during this period as well.
Various air carrier closures and reductions in the number of flights have caused ridership numbers at OAK and SJC to trend downward since the fall of 2007. SFO ridership increased between May 2008 and May 2009, while OAK posted an annual decrease of 17 percent and SJC a decrease of 11.9 percent. May ridership data for OAK was not available.
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