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of
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Oakland
Oakley
Piedmont
Pinole
Pittsburg
Pleasant Hill
Pleasanton
Richmond
San Leandro
San Ramon
Alameda County
Contra Costa County
This forecast was prepared by:
Stephanie Brown
Economic Development Analyst
(510) 272-6843
East
Bay EDA
1221 Oak St., Ste. 555
Oakland. CA 94612
Serving the East Bay
- the Bright Side of the
San Francisco Bay
For more information on
the East Bay, click on www.eastbayeda.org
For archived newsletters
and forecasts click here
For more reports and studies on the East Bay, click
here
 |
AUGUST 2008 EDITION
The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay
Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast
authored by economists at the UCLA
Anderson Forecast.
East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and
suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown,
stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call
(510) 272-6843.
For a more printable version of this newsletter,
click
here
THE EAST BAY IN JULY 2008
* Unemployment increased, rising to 6.7 percent from 6.2 in June
*
Professional & business services lost 300 jobs between June and July, far below the typical seasonal increase of 500 jobs
*Increased
inventory and falling prices helped sales in
Contra Costa County post annual increases
for the first time in over a year
*Commercial construction permits showed an annual increase of 30 percent in Alameda County
* The Port of Oakland posted a year-over gain in exports while imports declined
BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT According to the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in the East Bay was 6.7 percent in July 2008, up from a revised 6.2 percent in June 2008, and above the year-ago estimate of 5.2 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.6 percent for California and 6.0 percent for the nation during the same period. The rate of 6.7 percent was the highest seen in the East Bay since August 2003.
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department’s monthly release, between June 2008 and July 2008 the total number of jobs in the East Bay decreased by 11,300, falling to 1,027,700.
• Government posted a typical seasonal decrease of 8,700 jobs, with local public schools reducing payrolls by 9,500 jobs.
• Private educational and health services also posted a seasonal loss of 1,000 jobs, with private schools reducing payrolls by 1,100 jobs.
• Professional and business services posted the largest deviation from its usual seasonal pattern with a decrease of 300 jobs, which is far below the industry’s average 500-job increase from June to July which has taken place over the prior 18 years. Employment services also declined during a period of seasonal growth. • Construction added 700 jobs, slightly below its average 900-job increase from June to July over the prior 18 years.
According to DataQuick
Information Systems, Bay Area home sales
picked up in counties impacted most by
foreclosures in July, while prices continued
to slide downward.
According to MDA DataQuick, a total of 7,586 new and resale houses and condos were sold throughout the Bay Area in July, a 5.7 percent increase from 7,178 in June 2008.
When compared
with July 2007, home sales grew 2.2 percent.
All Bay Area counties continued to see year-over-year price declines in July. In the East Bay, Alameda County’s median value was $440,000, a 27.3 percent decline over July 2007. The Contra Costa County median home sale value was $350,000, a 41.6 percent decline over July 2007. Of all nine Bay Area counties, Contra Costa had the largest annual decline in median home sale values between July 2007 and July 2008.
|
All Homes by County
|
Number Sold July 2008
|
Sales Annual Pct. Change
|
Median July 2008
|
Median Annual Pct. Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alameda
|
1,428
|
-9.40%
|
$440,000
|
-27.30%
|
|
|
Contra Costa
|
1,730
|
30.30%
|
$350,000
|
-41.60%
|
|
|
Marin
|
277
|
-9.50%
|
$770,000
|
-13.20%
|
|
|
Napa
|
125
|
47.10%
|
$440,000
|
-28.40%
|
|
|
San Francisco
|
609
|
8.00%
|
$749,000
|
-6.30%
|
|
|
San Mateo
|
648
|
-11.00%
|
$670,000
|
-16.30%
|
|
|
Santa Clara
|
1,660
|
-13.10%
|
$585,500
|
-16.40%
|
|
|
Solano
|
592
|
45.10%
|
$275,000
|
-33.70%
|
|
|
Sonoma
|
517
|
0.00%
|
$362,500
|
-30.30%
|
|
|
Bay Area
|
7,586
|
2.20%
|
$470,000
|
-29.30%
|
|
|
Source: Data Quick Information Systems
|
|
|
Region
|
Total Value of Construction Permits
8/07 – 7/08
|
Annual Change in Total Value of
Construction Permits
8/06-7/07 vs. 8/07-7/08
|
Percent Change
|
|
East Bay
|
$3,066,831,414
|
-$906,459,412
|
-22.8%
|
|
Napa
|
$393,290,159
|
$52,073,591
|
15.3%
|
|
San Francisco
|
$4,239,044,737
|
$377,386,778
|
9.8%
|
|
San Jose
|
$3,276,047,107
|
$45,771,585
|
1.4%
|
|
Vallejo-Fairfield
|
$791,228,692
|
-$492,897,335
|
-38.4%
|
In a comparison of these two twelve-month periods, the East Bay showed a decrease in construction permit values, falling 22.8 percent (over 900 million) from the previous period. The San Francisco, Napa and San Jose regions posted increases over the previous period, while the Vallejo-Fairfield region showed losses as well.
The traffic of imports transported in full twenty-foot equivalent (TEU) containers at the Port of Oakland have posted year-over-year decreases since the beginning of 2008, while exports have continued to grow. Both import and export empty TEUs declined in July 2008 when compared with July 2007.
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