The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay
Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast
authored by economists at the UCLA
Anderson Forecast.
East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and
suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown,
stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call
(510) 272-6843.
To download this report as a PDF
click
here.
THE EAST BAY IN AUGUST 2008
* Unemployment increased, rising to 6.8 percent from 6.7 in July
*
Construction saw a nearly-seasonal increase of 900 jobs between July and August – but lost 6,500 jobs between August 2007 and August 2008, mostly in specialty trade contractors and construction of buildings
*High inventory and falling prices continued to spark increases in Contra Costa County home sales
*Home values fell 28 percent annually in Alameda County and 42 percent annually in Contra Costa County
*Commercial construction permit values increased 20 percent annually in Alameda County
According to the California Employment Development Department, The unemployment rate in the East Bay was 6.8 percent in August 2008, up from a revised 6.7 percent in July 2008, and above the year-ago estimate of 5 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.6 percent for California and 6.1 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 6.9 percent in Alameda County, and 6.7 percent in Contra Costa County.
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department monthly employment release, between July 2008 and August 2008, the total number of jobs in the East Bay decreased by 300, falling to 1,028,600.
• Government decreased by 2,100 jobs, exceeding its average 900-job decrease from July to August over the prior 18 years. Local public schools reduced payrolls by 1,400 jobs, a larger-than-typical decrease.
• Construction led the month-over gains by adding 900 jobs, a nearly typical seasonal increase.
• Professional and business services increased by 500 jobs, although below its average 1,000-job increase from July to August over the prior 18 years. Employment services experienced a smaller-than-usual increase.
According to MDA DataQuick, the pace of Bay Area home sales reversed its July uptick and dropped again in August. Contra Costa, Solano and Napa Counties, hardest hit by foreclosures, were the only Bay Area counties to see significant increases in home sales activity.
A total of 7,232 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in August. Sales in Contra Costa County gained 35.5 percent over August 2007, and sales numbers in Solano and Napa Counties climbed 43.1 percent and 20.4 percent, respectively.
All Bay Area counties continued to see year-over-year price declines in August. In the East Bay, Alameda County’s median value was $440,000, a 28.9 percent decline over August 2007. The Contra Costa County median home sale value was $330,000, a 42.1 percent decline over August 2007. Of all nine Bay Area counties, Contra Costa had the largest annual decline in median home sale values between August 2007 and August 2008.
|
All Homes by County
|
Number Sold August 2008
|
Sales Annual Pct. Change
|
Median August 2008
|
Median Annual Pct. Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alameda
|
1,271
|
-15.30%
|
$440,000
|
-28.90%
|
|
|
Contra Costa
|
1,733
|
35.50%
|
$330,000
|
-42.10%
|
|
|
Marin
|
247
|
-6.40%
|
$675,000
|
-25.00%
|
|
|
Napa
|
124
|
20.40%
|
$453,500
|
-24.10%
|
|
|
San Francisco
|
529
|
-8.30%
|
$725,000
|
-11.80%
|
|
|
San Mateo
|
560
|
-23.40%
|
$632,000
|
-19.80%
|
|
|
Santa Clara
|
1,648
|
-13.60%
|
$555,500
|
-20.60%
|
|
|
Solano
|
598
|
43.10%
|
$270,000
|
-35.70%
|
|
|
Sonoma
|
522
|
0.80%
|
$350,000
|
-30.70%
|
|
|
Bay Area
|
7,232
|
-0.90%
|
$447,000
|
-31.80%
|
|
|
Source: MDA DataQuick
|
|
|
Region
|
Total Value of Construction Permits
9/07 – 8/08
|
Annual Change in Total Value of
Construction Permits
9/06-8/07 vs. 9/07-8/08
|
Annual
Percent Change
|
|
East Bay
|
$2,940,413,001
|
-$843,160,218
|
-22.3%
|
|
Napa
|
$398,501,691
|
$68,211,306
|
20.7%
|
|
San Francisco
|
$4,159,749,439
|
$119,584,688
|
3.0%
|
|
San Jose
|
$3,174,565,116
|
-$185,253,694
|
-5.5%
|
|
Vallejo-Fairfield
|
$815,687,553
|
-$456,749,644
|
-35.9%
|
In a comparison of these two twelve-month periods, the East Bay showed a decrease in construction permit values, falling 22.3 percent (over $840 million) from the previous period. The San Francisco, Napa and regions posted increases over the previous period, while the San Jose and Vallejo-Fairfield regions showed losses as well.
