| | | | EAST BAY DECEMBER 2006 MONTHLY ANALYSIS | | The East Bay Monthly Analysis augments the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by the UCLA Anderson Forecast. A free subscription and downloads of both monthly and quarterly reports are available at www.edab.org/newsletter.html. East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and suggestions. Send your comments, questions or suggestions to stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call us at (510) 272-6843. For a more printable (PDF) version of this newsletter, click here. SNAPSHOT: THE EAST BAY IN NOVEMBER 2006  | The East Bay unemployment rate was 4.2% in November, up from 3.9% in October | | November was the East Bay’s 30th consecutive month of year-over-year gains in payroll employment – which reached an over five-year high in November | | East Bay home sales were up compared to October, but were down from November one year ago | | East Bay multi-family permits increased in a year-over-year comparison, while single family permits decreased | | East Bay hotels enjoyed increases in both occupancy and daily room rates | | East Bay Industrial permit values continued to decline in year-over-year comparisons, falling 51 percent from the previous 12-month period |
Real gross domestic product - the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States - increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2006, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, equipment and software; nonresidential structures – such as new construction, improvements to existing structures, as well as equipment like plumbing and heating, which are an integral part of a structure; and state and local government spending. These contributions were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. 
(Click here for more on GDP and Corporate Profits). 
In November, shelter costs in the Bay Area were down less than 0.01 percent, while the US Cities average was up 0.04 percent. November’s decrease in Bay Area shelter costs was the first since June of 2006, when the percentage decrease was 0.34 percent. Compared with November 2005, shelter costs in the Bay Area have increased 2.66 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the US Cities CPI-U was unchanged in November, following declines of 0.5 percent in each of the preceding two months. Energy prices, which declined sharply in September and October, fell 0.2 percent in November. (Click here for more on CPI). 
The unemployment rate in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan District was 4.2 percent in November 2006, up from 3.9 percent in October 2006, but below the year-ago estimate of 4.7 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 4.5 percent for California and 4.3 percent for the nation during the same period. Within the East Bay, Alameda County’s unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in November 2006, up from 4.0 percent in October, and Contra Costa County’s rate was 4.0 percent, up from 3.8 percent in October. (Click here for more on Bay Area Workforce, Employed Residents & Payroll). In a year-over-year comparison of November 2005 and November 2006, payroll employment in the East Bay advanced by 20,100 jobs, or 1.9 percent. This marks the 30th consecutive month of year-over job gains. In San Francisco and San Jose the year-over-year comparison of payroll employment was also positive, with gains of 19,300 and 13,900 jobs, respectively. In the East Bay: · Professional and business services led the growth with a net increase of 4,200 jobs. Employment services (up 1,900 jobs) added close to half of that gain. · Construction had 4,000 more jobs than last year, registering its 32nd month of year-over gains. · Educational and health services expanded by 3,200 jobs, with more than half of those jobs in health care (up 1,800 jobs). · Government posted a net gain of 3,100 jobs. A gain concentrated in local public schools more than offset scattered declines. (Click here for more on East Bay Payroll Employment by Sector). All Homes by County | Number Sold
November 2006 | Annual Pct.
Chg | Median
November 2006 | Median Annual Pct.
Chg | Alameda | 1,441 | -28.30% | $581,000 | -1.00% | Contra Costa | 1,406 | -28.30% | $562,000 | -4.60% | Marin | 268 | -25.80% | $841,000 | 4.00% | Napa | 125 | -31.70% | $596,000 | -1.50% | San Francisco | 441 | -25.80% | $754,000 | 0.70% | San Mateo | 581 | -23.10% | $726,000 | -1.00% | Santa Clara | 1,846 | -22.90% | $665,000 | 1.80% | Solano | 565 | -27.00% | $446,000 | -9.00% | Sonoma | 531 | -22.50% | $530,000 | -7.70% | Bay Area | 7,204 | -25.90% | $616,000 | -1.40% | Source: Data Quick Information Systems |
Bay Area home prices dipped below year-ago levels in November for the second time in three months as sales held steady at a five-year low, according to DataQuick Information Systems. All nine Bay Area counties saw a decrease in the number of homes sold in November 2006 versus November 2005. Alameda and Contra Costa Counties both saw annual decreases of 28.30 percent. Napa County was the only Bay Area County to see a larger decrease than the East Bay in home sales during the month of November. The median price paid for a home in Alameda County was $581,000 in November. That was 0.5 percent higher than $578,000 in October but down 1.0 percent from $587,000 in November 2005. In Contra Costa County the median home price also declined in a year-over-year comparison, dropping 4.6 percent, or $27,000 from last November’s median of $589,000. In November 2006 over $169 million in residential permits were issued in the East Bay, down from $271 million in October. The slowdown in permit issuance can be attributed to seasonal factors, as well as the fact that fewer residential developments are being planned and built as homes continue to sit longer on the market. Non-residential permits declined throughout the Bay Area in November 2006 – with the East Bay issuing $80 million, the lowest dollar value since the previous 14-month low of $76 million in April of 2006. After experiencing record-setting dollar values in October, non-residential permits were down significantly in both the San Francisco and San Jose regions. 
(Click here for more on Construction Permits). The PKF Consulting report on hotel trends for October 2006 shows an 8.0 percent increase in room rates throughout Northern California. The East Bay’s average daily room rate of $112.11 in October was 7.2 percent higher than in October 2005. Hotels throughout Northern California saw year-over-year increases in room rates in October, with hotels in Monterey, Napa and San Francisco Counties reaching all-time highs in room rates. 
(Click here for more on Hotel Occupancy). | | 
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