The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown, stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call (510) 272-6843.

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SNAPSHOT

THE EAST BAY IN NOVEMBER 2007

* East Bay Construction employment posted a larger-than-average seasonal decrease of 1,400 jobs

* Financial activities employment fell by 1,100 jobs

* Home sales continued to slow as median home sale values saw slight decreases

* Non-residential construction permit values increased slightly, with much of the activity being in the industrial sector

* Both single and multi-family residential construction permit values showed annual decreases

BAY AREA EMPLOYMENT

BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT -- The unemployment rate for the East Bay region (Alameda and Contra Costa Counties) remained stable at 4.9 percent in October and November 2007, and above the year-ago estimate of 4.2 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.6 percent for California and 4.5 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in Alameda County and 4.9 percent in Contra Costa County.

 Unemployment rates in the Bay Area?s other metro areas also saw little change from October to November 2007, holding steady at 4.9 percent in San Francisco and increasing slightly from 4.9 to 5.0 percent in San Jose. Unemployment rates in both regions were up from November 2006 estimates, when the rate in San Francisco was 3.7 percent and in San Jose the rate was 4.4 percent.

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EAST BAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

MONTHLY COMPARISON

According to the California Employment Development Department, between October 2007 and November 2007, the total number of jobs in the East Bay counties of Alameda and Contra Costa rose by 2,100 jobs to reach 1,066,100.

•  Trade, transportation, and utilities added a smaller-than- average seasonal increase of 3,400 jobs, with Retail trade registering a gain of 2,900 jobs as department, clothing, and other stores increased staffing for the holiday shopping season.

• Government expanded seasonally by 1,100 jobs.

• Construction posted a larger-than-average seasonal decrease of 1,400 jobs. Specialty trade contractors (down 800 jobs) accounted for most of the losses.

• Financial activities fell by 1,100 jobs, which is atypical to the average 100-job gain between October and November for the past 17 years.

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HOUSING

According to Data Quick Information Systems, sluggish demand kept sales at a two-decade low for the third straight month in the Bay Area. While prices continued to hold up best in the region's core markets, outlying areas continued to post double-digit annual declines.

A total of 5,127 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area in November. That was down 6.5 percent from 5,486 in October, and down 36.2 percent from 8,042 in November 2006.

All Homes by County	Number Sold November 2007	Sales Annual Pct. Chg	Median November 2007	Median Annual Pct. Chg
Alameda	1,098	-33.70%	$570,000	-3.00%
Contra  Costa	1,011	-42.40%	$530,500	-1.80%
Marin	216	-28.70%	$875,000	5.50%
Napa	71	-53.90%	$548,750	0.20%
San Francisco	1,381	-35.00%	$683,750	1.50%
San Mateo	526	-8.20%	$795,000	3.90%
Santa Clara	512	-28.80%	$775,000	2.60%
Solano	309	-51.40%	$391,750	-15.60%
Sonoma	362	-40.90%	$473,000	-9.00%
Bay Area	5,486	-35.70%	$631,000	2.40%
Source: Data Quick Information Systems

 

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CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

Between October and November 2007, changes in the dollar value of construction permits issued in Bay Area regions were minimal. The East Bay saw a decline of $15 million while the San Jose and Napa areas also saw declines of $21 million and $10 million, respectively. San Francisco and Vallejo posted increases of $13 and $22 million, respectively.

On a year-over-year basis, the East Bay declined $38 million while the San Jose area showed a $90 million dollar decline. The San Francisco and Napa regions posted moderate increases. The East Bay was the only Bay Area region to post month-over- month losses in non-residential permit values in November, declining $43 million since October 2007. San Francisco had the largest month-over-month increase, rising $83 million over October 2007. With the exception of the San Jose region, which showed year-over-year increase of over $100 million, non- residential permit values saw moderate increases in all other Bay Area regions.

Region	Change in Total Value of Construction Permits 12/05-11/06 vs. 12/06-11/07	Percent Change
East Bay	-$717,652,572	-16.6%
Napa	$142,114,057	53.1%
San Francisco	$290,126,519	7.7%
San Jose	$109,722,796	3.4%
Vallejo-Fairfield	-$165,806,441	-12.6%

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