The East Bay Monthly Analysis is prepared by the East Bay Economic Development Alliance staff to augment the East Bay Quarterly Forecast authored by economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

East Bay EDA welcomes your comments and suggestions. Please contact Stephanie Brown, stephanie@eastbayeda.org or call (510) 272-6843.

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NOTE: Due to the U.S. Department of Labor’s annual revision process, employment data in this monthly report may differ from previously released data. Labor Force, Unemployment, and Employed residents data for January 2003-December 2006 will be updated March 21. Readers will notice large increases and decreases between December 2006 and January 2007 as a result of these data changes. Our next Monthly Analysis will reflect the complete data revision. Payroll/Industry employment numbers are not affected by this revision and are accurate.

SNAPSHOT

THE EAST BAY IN JANUARY 2008

* East Bay Construction employment posted a higher than average monthly decrease of 4,200 jobs

* Retail Trade posted a seasonal loss of 6,300 jobs between December and January due to the end of the holiday shopping season

* Home sales continued to slow as median home sale values decreased an average of 14 percent

* Non-residential construction permit values increased slightly, with much of the activity being in the industrial sector

* Both single and multi-family residential construction permits continued to post annual decreases

BAY AREA EMPLOYMENT

BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT -- The unemployment rate in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward MD was 5.3 percent in January 2008, up from 5.0 percent in December 2007, and above the year-ago estimate of 4.7 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 6.3 percent for California and 5.4 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in Alameda County and 5.4 percent in Contra Costa County.

Unemployment rates in the Bay Area’s other metro areas also rose between December 2007 and January 2008. San Francisco’s unemployment rate increased from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent during the period, while unemployment in San Jose was up from 5.1 percent in December 2007 to 5.3 percent in January 2008. San Francisco's unemployment rate was unchanged from the January 2007 estimate, while the rate in San Jose was up from 4.8 percent when compared to January 2007.

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EAST BAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR

MONTHLY COMPARISON

According to the California Employment Development Department, the total number of jobs in the East Bay fell by 24,600 jobs to reach 1,034,200 in January 2008, down from 1,058,800 in December 2007. As typically occurs at this time of year, all major nonfarm industries declined seasonally.

•  Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 7,800 jobs, largely in retail trade (down 6,300 jobs) due to the end of the holiday shopping season.

• Professional and business services decreased seasonally by 4,300 jobs, with cutbacks spread throughout various professional, scientific, and technical services and in employment services.

• Construction payrolls fell by 4,200 jobs, a larger decrease than the prior 17-year average loss of 3,100 jobs between December and January.

• Leisure and hospitality, as well as educational and health services, each declined seasonally by 2,400 jobs.

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HOME SALES

According to DataQuick Information Systems, Bay Area home sales plunged below 4,000 in January - a first in over 20 years. The credit crunch and continued uncertainty among buyers, sellers and lenders, caused price declines to steepen, especially in inland markets hit hard by foreclosures.

A total of 3,586 new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area in January. That was down 29.2 percent from 5,065 in December, and down 41.9 percent from 6,168 in January 2007.

All Homes by County	Number Sold January  2008	Sales Annual Pct. Chg	Median January 2008	Median Annual Pct. Chg
Alameda	780	-39.00%	$487,750	-14.40%
Contra Costa	667	-42.40%	$463,000	-15.80%
Marin	122	-37.40%	$845,000	1.80%
Napa	44	-55.10%	$532,500	-1.80%
San Francisco	293	-27.10%	$744,000	-0.80%
San Mateo	295	-40.90%	$675,000	-8.20%
Santa Clara	869	-45.90%	$639,000	-3.20%
Solano	247	-47.20%	$347,500	-19.20%
Sonoma	269	-41.90%	$425,000	-16.70%
Bay Area	3,586	-41.90%	$550,000	-8.50%
Source: Data Quick Information Systems

 

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CONSTRUCTION PERMITS

Between December 2007 and January 2008, changes in the dollar value of residential construction permits issued in Bay Area regions were varied. The East Bay saw a decline of $88 million while the San Francisco and San Jose areas saw increases of of $56 million and $5 million, respectively. The Napa and Vallejo-Fairfield areas posted losses of $2 and $14 million, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the East Bay declined $59 million while the San Francisco area showed a $101 million dollar increase. The Vallejo-Fairfield region declined $58 million, while the San Francisco and Napa regions were virtually unchanged in the comparison.

In January, the East Bay showed a modest increase of $8 million in non-residential permits when compared with December 2007. The Napa and Vallejo-Fairfield regions also posted increases, gaining $15 and $86 million, respectively, between December 2007 and January 2008. The San Francisco and San Jose regions saw losses of $7 and $10 million, respectively. In a year-over-year comparison with January 2007 the East Bay gained $31 million, San Francisco gained $48 million, and the Vallejo-Fairfield and Napa regions gained $53 and $92 million, respectively. San Jose was the only region to post losses, where permit values dropped roughly $6 million under the January 2007 amount.

Region	Change in Total Value of Construction Permits 2/06-1/07 vs. 2/07-1/08	Percent Change
East Bay	-$586,576,971	-14.0%
Napa	$177,238,765	72.6%
San Francisco	$518,999,757	14.0%
San Jose	$170,273,425	5.3%
Vallejo-Fairfield	-$331,170,054	-23.6%

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