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Research Facts & Figures
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Economic Forecasts & Updates
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Q3 2009 Quarterly Forecast
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Employment
EMPLOYMENT
BAY AREA UNEMPLOYMENT
The unemployment rate in the East Bay was 11.1 percent in June 2009, up from a revised 10.5 percent in May 2009, and above the year-ago estimate of 6.1 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 11.6 percent for California and 9.7 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate was 11.4 percent in Alameda County, and 10.7 percent in Contra Costa County.
Unemployment rates in the Bay Area’s other metro areas also inreased during this period. San Francisco’s unemployment rate was 9.2 percent in June – up from an adjusted 8.7 percent in May, but significantly higher than the June 2008 estimate of 4.9 percent. The unemployment rate in San Jose rose to 11.8 percent in June – up from 11.4 percent in May and significantly higher than the June 2008 rate of 6.0 percent.
BAY AREA LABOR FORCE
In a month-over-month comparison, the East Bay’s labor force (number of individuals currently employed or actively seeking employment) gained 7,100 workers, rising to 1,305,600 in June 2009. San Francisco’s labor force gained 2,900 workers to reach 967,500, and in San Jose the number of workers rose 5,000 to reach 917,700. In a year-over-year comparison, the East Bay and San Jose regions continued to see gains in labor force numbers, while San Francisco saw a small decrease. The East Bay had 11,200 more workers in June 2009 than in June 2008, San Jose had 15,800 more workers, and San Francisco had 4,700 fewer workers.
BAY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
Between May and June 2009, the number of employed residents (employed persons who reside within the region) fell 700 in the East Bay, 2,100 in San Francisco, and was unchanged in San Jose. When compared to June 2008, a year-over-year comparison showed the East Bay with 54,400 fewer employed residents, San Francisco with 45,700 fewer and San Jose with 39,000 fewer.
BAY AREA PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
Between May and June 2009, the East Bay lost 400 payroll jobs (number of jobs located in the specified region, not including those who are self-employed), San Francisco lost 2,400, while payrolls in San Jose were unchanged. Since June 2008, the East Bay has lost 46,300 jobs, San Francisco has lost 50,600 and San Jose has lost 43,400. A detailed description of East Bay payroll employment by sector follows in the next section.
EAST BAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
MONTHLY COMPARISON
According to the California Employment Development Department, between May 2009 and June 2009, the total number of jobs located in the East Bay counties of Alameda and Contra Costa County decreased by 400 jobs, slipping to 994,500.
- The major industry with the largest deviation from its usual seasonal pattern was trade, transportation, and utilities; it declined by 800 jobs, far below its average 1,100-job increase from May-to-June over the prior 19 years. Retail trade cutback by 200 jobs, far below its usual 700-job increase from May-to-June over the prior 19 years.
- Government (down 1,600 jobs seasonally) led the month-over job losses.
- On the upside, leisure and hospitality expanded by 900 jobs seasonally. Food services and bars (up 500 jobs) accounted for the bulk of the increase.
- Professional and business services gained 400 jobs. Administrative and support services (up 300 jobs) accounted for the majority of the increase.
- Construction, financial activities, and other services added 300 jobs each. Construction was far below its usual 1,400-job increase from May-to-June over the prior 19 years.
ANNUAL COMPARISON
Between June 2008 and June 2009, the total number of jobs located in the East Bay decreased by 46,300 jobs or 4.4 percent.
- Trade, transportation, and utilities declined by 10,100 jobs, mostly in retail trade (down 6,600 jobs).
- Construction decreased by 9,900 jobs, largely in specialty trade contractors (down 7,800 jobs).
- Professional and business services lost 7,100 jobs, mainly in employment services (down 3,600 jobs).
- Other major industries with losses of at least 4,000 jobs each included manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality.
| |
Jun-09 |
1 Month Change |
12
Month Change |
12 Month % Change |
24 Month Change |
| Educational and Health Services |
127,800 |
-200 |
800 |
0.6% |
3,800 |
| Information |
26,900 |
-100 |
-900 |
-3.2% |
-2,500 |
| Other Services |
35,500 |
300 |
-1,400 |
-3.8% |
-1,100 |
| Wholesale Trade |
46,400 |
-100 |
-1,700 |
-3.5% |
-2,600 |
| Trans, Warehousing & Utilities |
34,500 |
-500 |
-1,800 |
-5.0% |
-2,800 |
| Government |
177,100 |
-1,600 |
-2,900 |
-1.6% |
-11,300 |
| Financial Activities |
53,200 |
300 |
-4,600 |
-8.0% |
-9,800 |
| Leisure and Hospitality |
87,000 |
900 |
-4,600 |
-5.0% |
-3,000 |
| Manufacturing |
88,200 |
0 |
-5,600 |
-6.0% |
-6,500 |
| Retail Trade |
103,900 |
-200 |
-6,600 |
-6.0% |
-7,900 |
| Professional and Business Services |
154,900 |
400 |
-7,100 |
-4.4% |
-1,300 |
| Construction |
56,200 |
300 |
-9,900 |
-15.0% |
-17,100 |
| Total, All Industries |
994,500 |
-400 |
-46,300 |
-4.4% |
-62,100 |
| INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT DATA SOURCE: California Employment
Development Department |
EAST BAY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
Activity in the East Bay’s construction sector reflects the housing downturn continuing to affect the region and the nation at large. All East Bay construction sub-sectors but Nonresidential building (unchanged) posted losses in the year-over-year comparison.
| |
Jun-09 |
Change 1 MO |
Change 12 MO |
12 Month % Change |
24 Month Change |
| Highway, Street, and Bridge Const |
3,400 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
-100 |
| Nonresidential Building Construction |
5,600 |
100 |
-100 |
-1.8% |
-100 |
| Residual-Other Heavy and Civil Engineer |
4,000 |
-100 |
-700 |
-14.9% |
-1,900 |
| Residential Building Construction |
8,200 |
100 |
-1,300 |
-13.7% |
-4,200 |
| Building Foundation and Exterior Contractors |
8,000 |
100 |
-1,300 |
-14.0% |
-2,700 |
| Building Equipment Contractors |
13,400 |
0 |
-1,400 |
-9.5% |
-2,100 |
| Other Specialty Trade Contract |
13,600 |
100 |
-5,100 |
-27.3% |
-6,000 |
| Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction |
7,400 |
-100 |
-700 |
-8.6% |
-2,000 |
| Construction of Buildings |
13,800 |
200 |
-1,400 |
-9.2% |
-4,300 |
| Specialty Trade Contractors |
35,000 |
200 |
-7,800 |
-18.2% |
-10,800 |
| Total Construction |
56,200 |
300 |
-9,900 |
-15.0% |
-17,100 |
EAST BAY MANUFACTURING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
The East Bay’s manufacturing sector showed an overall loss of 5,400 jobs when compared with May 2008. Most losses occurred in the food and residual-miscellaneous sectors.
| |
Jun-09 |
Change 1 MO |
Change 12 MO |
12 Month % Change |
24 Month Change |
| Petroleum and Coal Products |
8,100 |
0 |
100 |
1.3% |
700 |
| Chemical |
7,000 |
100 |
100 |
1.4% |
-200 |
| Transportation Equipment |
7,200 |
100 |
-400 |
-5.3% |
-500 |
| Residual-Food |
19,500 |
200 |
-700 |
-3.5% |
-800 |
| Computer and Electronic Product |
18,000 |
-100 |
-1,800 |
-9.1% |
-2,100 |
| Residual-Miscellaneous |
28,400 |
-300 |
-2,900 |
-9.3% |
-3,600 |
| Durable Goods |
53,600 |
-300 |
-5,100 |
-8.7% |
-6,200 |
| Nondurable Goods |
34,600 |
300 |
-500 |
-1.4% |
-300 |
| Total Manufacturing |
88,200 |
0 |
-5,600 |
-6.0% |
-6,500 |
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